I have added an animated GIF to the meteoLCD site showing the evolution of the total infected number for Luxembourg, together with a Gompertz fit made the current day and a visual indication of the uncertainty range (the yellow rectangle):

The Gompertz equation is Total = a*exp(-b*exp(-c*Day)); to make a consistent non-linear fit (using Statistica with a Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm) the initial values of the 3 parameters have been kept constant: a=2000, b=0.10, c= 0.05

Starting 24-March-20 the fit and the parameters are statistically significant (at the 95% level, R2 is always >0.99). To make a correct animation, one has to be careful that the general layout of the graphs does not change from plot to plot (same text except date, same scale of axis, etc.). I used the free online animated GIF maker at ezgif.com, which is quite handy. The Gif maker allows to change the time delay individually for every picture, which is quite handy (I did not see this feature in the first animations made, but use it now…). The animation is built upon the graphs of every second day.

Click **here** to access the animated GIF!

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