In this 3rd part I will make some comments on rounding errors, and make a recalculation of the external costs that the author gives at 3.5 billion Euros.
6. Rounding errors
A really annoying error is that the author has problems with rounding and sums of rounded numbers. At many places the sums given in a table are different from the correct number by 1. The problem probably comes from summing in an Excel sheet non-rounded numbers, and giving in the tables the rounded numbers without checking that the sum of these rounded numbers is not equal to the rounded sum in the Excel sheet. This is a very basic error, that should not be made in a (probably expensive!) report written by a well-known institute.
As an example, let us look at Table 4 at page 26: all the sums with a blue strike-out are wrong; the sum “440” in the line corresponding to 2000 is two-times wrong: adding the numbers should give 341 (instead of 440), but the number 96 for the “Benzin” (gasoline) inland consumption probably should be 196 (which makes the correct sum 441):
7. Re-checking the scary 3.5 billion cost number
At page 49 we find the sentence repeated by all news articles I have read: “ist mit externen Umwelt-und Gesundheitskosten von insgesamt 3.5 Mrd. Euro pro Jahr verbunden”. In English, the authors says that the fuel sold in Luxembourg in 2012 (for this year has been used for the calculations) has external costs for the environment and health of 3.5 billion Euro. The positive impact on the GNP is 1.8 + 0.26 =2.06 billion € .
The costs which can be attributed to the fuel sold are essentially the costs related to the emissions of pollutants, and those from CO2 emissions. Road accidents will also happen when all vehicles run on electricity, they should not appear in this calculation!
The numbers for the emissions costs relate to 2008 (there is a real confusion in the report regarding the years corresponding to given numbers, because they vary from 2008, 2010 and finally 2012 is taken in the status quo discussion). The inland fuel usages (in kt) in 2008 and 2012 were 573 and 574, and the exported numbers 1610 and 1586. As these quantities do not differ by more than 5%, we will use the emission costs given in part 2 for the calculation of total costs in 2012. The price of 1 ton CO2 is taken as 10€, a number that many experts estimate being the EU emission price until 2020 (see for instance here). The up to 50 times higher number given by Ewringmann at page 32 should be considered as green fantasy.
The following picture shows the costs for inland, exports and the grand total:
So even if we accept that all costs (inland and export) should be summed (I repeat: I do not agree!), the range goes from 264 to 661 million Euro: this is a staggering difference by nearly one order of magnitude for the lower range, and by a factor of 5 for the high range value with respect to the scary 3.5 billion amount.
The 3.5 billion Euro number is pure and extreme guess work, a fantasy number rooted in non-real, extreme CO2 costs and in a faulty calculation of emission costs.
(end of part 3)
(to be continued with last part 4 )