The never vanishing ozone hole!

There has been some discussions in the media on the success of the Montreal protocol in eliminating the usage of ozone depleting substances, and its effect on the Antarctic ozone hole.

A much more sober evaluation can be found in the EEA report “Production and consumption of ozone depleting substances“. I made an overlay of the two important graphs of the area of the Antarctic ozone hole area  and the world  consumption of ozone depleting substances (ODS), like CFC’s:


This objective plot shows that the ozone hole practically stays constant since 1992, whereas the consumption of the OSD falls sharply to near zero levels.  This begs some serious explanation: are the man-made OSD the sole cause of ozone depletion, or are other phenomena acting here? Since 20 years, the OSD consumption is less than 20% of its value 30 years ago; should we really assume that a delay of 20 to 30 years is needed before seeing the effect of the OSD ban?

Just for us in the Northern Hemisphere: here the graph of the total ozone column as measured in Uccle since the 72’s: the grey region corresponds to the [-2sigma, +2sigma] interval, containing about 96% of all values.



It is remarkable how fast local TOC changes, but the year-long average remains nicely sinusoidal; average TOC values do not show any decrease to be afraid of (there is a first  period of decrease followed by one of increase; we still are in the latter): no ozone hole here!


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