Archive for March, 2015

Climate Modelling Nonsense

March 31, 2015

I’m restructuring my workplace at home, by moving from one room to another, that was heavily modified and recabled. In doing this, one has to glance to all these many collected items and articles, and decide: trash it or keep it? These heroic decisions are sometimes made more easy, when one stumbles on one of these very outstanding articles, that shine like a beacon amid the stormy waves of platitudes, nonsense and boring pomposity.

John Reid’s “Climate Modelling Nonsense” published by Quadrant Online in 2009 is such a gem.

John_Reid John Reid is a PhD physicist from Tasmania, who worked in atmospheric physics and fluid dynamic modelling: so this guy really knows about what he writes! Let me cite some of the most memorable sentences of his article:

1. “(Climatologist) do not seek to invalidate their models; they only seek supporting evidence”

2. “Water vapour positive feedback is only an assumption: but, importantly for the modellers, it is an assumption which makes the models work.”

3. “…climate prediction, as it is carried out by those organizations which come under the aegis of the IPCC, is not science. It is a superstition, similar to astrology or homeopathy.”

4. “Over the last few years, with remarkable rapidity, AGW theory has gone from a scientific curiosity to a politically correct catechism… it seems to fulfill a human need for sacrifice…It is the ancient myth about guilt and sin and redemption in a new guise”.

This last point rings bells with me (I have been educated in a catholic environment, where these notions of guilt, sin and redemption were ubiquitous). The great French philosopher Serge Galam has written an article “Global Warming: The Sacrificial Temptation” which is a must-read, and further dwells down into this problem of human psychology, which makes an honest and intelligent climate debate so difficult.

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Solar eclipse 20 March 2015

March 20, 2015

I was a bit excited to watch this rare event of a regrettably not total, but nevertheless heavy partial solar eclipse. In 1999 we had a total eclipse in parts of Luxembourg, and I made some measurements and wrote a small comment on the meteorological impacts. So today I built up a telescope with a small projection screen and a datalogger with T/H sensor and an old pyranometer (which had its output amplified by an instrumentation amplifier I assembled a couple of years ago). The following picture shows this material, and also gives an impression of the heavy fog covering the whole valley of the river Sauer where Diekirch is located.

SONY DSC

The next picture is a close-up on the datalogger (a vintage faithful German 12bit Mikromec logger from 1990), with the instrumentation amplifier and the Kip and Zonen gray pyranometer; the Rotronic T/H sensor lies below the table, visible at the lower border of the picture. The white sensor at the rear is our Solarlight UVA sensor.

SONY DSC

Alas, the fog was very persistent, so that the sun became visible only during the last part of the eclipse.

SONY DSC

The next close-up shows the big sunspot AR2303 close to the moon’s border:

SONY DSC

So despite the disappointing viewing conditions, we nevertheless had at least the beautiful view of a big and nearly circular sunspot close to the vanishing moon shadow.

The last figure shows the variations of air temperature and solar irradiance during the eclipse; at the moment of maximum cover the solar disc was still completely invisible, but nevertheless the dip in solar irradiance is clearly visible:

eclipse_20Mar2015_05Air temperature also goes down by about 0.5 °C with a possible small delay. This is similar to the observations made in 1999 (see 3rd figure).

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added 21 March 2015:

Here is the graph of German solar electricity production; the sharp dip of 7 GW was filled by conventional fossil producers. As great parts of the country were covered by fog, the ramp up was not so spectacular as feared (it took a bit more than an hour from trough to peak), and the electrical grid remained stable (graph from here). Be careful with the left axis: the numbers do not seem correct, as DW gives those inserted in the graph.:
PV_production_DE

The HTW (Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin) has published (prior to the eclipse) an interesting study with several simulations of the effect on German solar electricity production.

The small print

March 16, 2015

the_small_print_GWPF_report

The GWPF (the Global Warming Policy Foundation) has a very interesting new report (they call it a “briefing”) answering a report by the Royal Society on climate change (A short guide to climate science). The RS report falls squarely into the usual “consensus” category, and suggest the human driver (and guilt) behind nearly all changes observed.
The list of contributors to the “Small Print” paper is impressive:

Prof Robert Carter
Prof Vincent Courtillot
Prof Freeman Dyson
Prof Christopher Essex
Dr Indur Goklany
Prof Will Happer
Prof Richard Lindzen
Prof Ross McKitrick
Prof Ian Plimer
Dr Matt Ridley
Sir Alan Rudge
Prof Nir Shaviv
Prof Fritz Vahrenholt

So this briefing should not simply be brushed away, but makes a careful reading mandatory. The style is easy, giving clear and no-frills answers titled “The fuller picture” to 20 important questions (the questions that are always asked…).

For instance, the Royal Society is impervious to the failing of climate models during the last 15-18 years. The”Small Print” briefing correctly explains that “The Royal Society guide claims that models fail to explain recent warming unless they incorporate anthropogenic forcing. This assertion depends on the readily falsifiable claim that models correctly replicate natural variability. Models fail on natural variability, therefore the Royal Society’s claim fails in the real world”.

Now that the preparations for the Paris climate conference are slowly coming into steam, everybody should ask the politicians and green climate warriors what they know about natural climate swings… A good question would be “if you are so ignorant about natural causes for climate change, how can you plan horribly expensive policies to mitigate a natural behavior, instead of planning adaptive measures when and where they are needed”.

Please read this briefing!

meteoLCD blog now selected for Wort.lu blogs

March 16, 2015

Just a quick message: this blog has been selected to be included in the selection of blogs shown by the Luxembourg daily journal “Luxembourger Wort”, which is Luxembourg most read news paper.. Click here to access this blogs page or click on the icon which links to http://www.wort.lu/en