EEA report: Chapters 1 to 5.2.7

I started reading the main body of the report on Europe’s changing climate. Chapters 1 to 4 are really just paper fillers: practically a copy/paste from IPCC AR4. Even the well buried hockeystick makes a revival in a plot of the records of past temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere (same plot as AR4/WG2). Economising the 36 pages of chapters 1 to 4 would not have been a bad idea!

From chapter 5 on, things get better and more relevant. This chapter “Indicator bases assessment” is a real blockbuster, going from page 37 to page 148.  Warm spells have been increasing, frost days decreasing since 1976 (maximum is 10 days for both), as should be expected from the slight 20th century global warming. Inmidts the usual “maybe, could, is projected to” are some real gems:

1. the proportion of Europe having experienced drought conditions did not change significantly during the 20th century

2.  there is no clear trend in storminess

I read up to the paragraph on ground ozone. This is a really disappointing paragraph, with no European-wide trends on this well measured gas (trends are given as negative in other reports with a possible slightly higher back-ground level in some parts…). A very visible red-coloured map gives the modelled changes, not the measured ones! As ozone peak levels depend on high temperatures, there is some speculation on a projected rise, but also the honest sentence that “the effect of climate change alone on tropospheric ozone is expected to be small“.

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